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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 30 January 20
CAPE: WITH CHINESE NEW YEAR TAKING PLACE, THE RATES ARE REACHING FURTHER DISAPPOINTING LEVELS - FEARNLEYS
Cape
With Chinese New Year taking place, the rates are reaching further disappointing levels. Present TC average is below USD 4,500, off 24% fr ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
INDONESIA REMAINS AT THE TOP SPOT IN 2019 AS THE LARGEST SUPPLIER OF COAL TO INDIA WITH 91.3 MLN TONNES - BANCHERO COSTA
Despite repeated promises from India’s government to reduce the country’s coal imports and increase domestic self-reliance, volumes jus ...
Wednesday, 29 January 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last week Libya’s oil production operations were disrupted as it was reported that local Libyan tribes interrupted output at the the El Feel ...
Tuesday, 28 January 20
INDONESIA - UNCERTAINTY OVER AVAILABILITY OF LSFO - THE STANDARD CLUB
The club has received reports that low sulphur fuel is not currently readily available in all Indonesian ports and that there are local shortages.
...
Sunday, 26 January 20
SUPRAMAX: THE ASIAN BASIN SAW A 56,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SAMARINDA TRIP TO WEST COAST INDIA AT $4,750 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The market endured heavy losses throughout the past week, with the Capesize 5TC dropping from $8,352 to $4,772. In the lead up to Chin ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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