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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 03 February 20
KOWEPO INVITING BIDS FOR 2.46 MILLION TONS OF MIN.5700 AND MIN.5600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an international tender for total 2,460,000 tons of (Sub) Bitum ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
NOVEL CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN CHINA - STANDARD CLUB
Members will be aware of the recent novel coronavirus outbreak in China, which has now been declared a global emergency by the World Health Organis ...
Sunday, 02 February 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED BASIS DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP TO INDIA, AT $6,000 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The week proved conspicuous for all the wrong reasons. This was the week when the Baltic Capesize Index (BCI) turned negative, closing ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
50 MILLION PEOPLE QUARANTINED IN CHINA TO CONTAIN SPREAD OF CORONAVIRUS - HOW DOES IT AFFECT SHIPPING? - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus, declared a global health emergency by the WHO, has caused massive uncertainty across the global markets with ...
Saturday, 01 February 20
THERMAL COAL MARKETS: 5 TRENDS TO WATCH OUT FOR IN 2020 - MINING REVIEW
The seaborne thermal coal market entered the year challenged by low priced LNG in the Atlantic and rapidly increasing supply in the Pacific.
&n ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
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