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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 07 February 20
CIL LOOKING TO TAP NON-POWER SECTORS FOR INCREMENTAL COAL, PTI REPORTED
The miner is looking to ramp up production to meet its targets for the current fiscal at a time when the economic slowdown is impacting demand for ...
Friday, 07 February 20
VIRUS - HIT CHINA MAY NEED MORE IMPORTS OF COAL. NOW COMES THE TRICKY PART - SHIPPING IT THERE: REUTERS
China’s domestic coal mines are struggling to ramp up production in the face of the ongoing coronavirus epidemic. That’s a situation th ...
Friday, 07 February 20
CORONAVIRUS IMPACTING THE GLOBAL SHIPPING INDUSTRY - BIMCO
The outbreak of the novel Coronavirus has dented market sentiment and spooked markets around the globe. When China sneezes, we all catch the flu. T ...
Thursday, 06 February 20
CAPE: WEAK SUPPLY/DEMAND RATIO THE STREETS REMAIN BLOODY FOR THE BIG SHIPS - FEARNLEYS
Cape: With still a weak supply/demand ratio the streets remain bloody for the big ships, and actual spot earnings are close to zero on main short-h ...
Thursday, 06 February 20
CHINESE DEMAND KEY UNCERTAINTY FOR SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2020 - THE BRICS POST
Coal trader Noble Resources head of research Rodrigo Echeverri Cardozo had penciled in a 3 Mt drop in Chinese import demand for 2020, but it could ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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