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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 05 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - WATSON, FARLEY & WILLIAMS
The continued spread of Coronavirus and governmental measures to minimise the impact is likely to affect the shipping industry and supply chain.
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Wednesday, 05 February 20
INDONESIA'S COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP 1.46% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The oil and gas industry benefitted from a strong and solid ground in the previous year. We witnessed a slow but steady increase in bunker’s ...
Wednesday, 05 February 20
RUSSIA EXPORTED 28.6 MLN TONNES OF LNG IN 2019 - REFINITIV
A lot of attention has been paid recently on the surge in LNG exports from the United States. However, another country which is seeing truly expone ...
Tuesday, 04 February 20
CAPE: THE AVERAGE EARNINGS PER DAY FELL BENEATH THE USD 4,000, A LEVEL CONSIDERABLY BELOW EVEN THE MOST CONSERVATIVE OPEX LEVELS - ALLIED
The recent slump in the dry bulk freight market may well have been expected to some degree, but despite this the shock was still overwhelming when ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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