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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 14 February 20
IS THE US COAL INDUSTRY COMPLETELY BURNED OUT? -FORBES
This is the fourth of a multi-part series on the state of the main sources of energy in the US and how they compare globally. The series will cover ...
Friday, 14 February 20
FITCH RTGS: GLOBAL PORTS VULNERABLE TO CORONAVIRUS - RELATED VOLUME DECLINES
Global ports will see reduced trade volumes as a result of the coronavirus, COVID-19, which would become more severe should Chinese production take ...
Thursday, 13 February 20
INDIA: MAJOR PORTS SHOW MUTED GROWTH IN CARGO AS THERMAL COAL VOLUME SLIDES 15% - BUSINESS STANDARD
A sharp slide of 15 per cent in thermal coal volumes weighed on the performance of major ports during the period of April-January of FY20. The majo ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
REFINING SET FOR A CHALLENGING 2020 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Downstream isn’t the glamorous end of the oil business. And in Big Oil, it’s typically dwarfed by upstream. Yet having been forced to r ...
Wednesday, 12 February 20
COAL INDIA WILL EXCEED LAST YEAR'S PRODUCTION FIGURES: OFFICIAL - PTI
Despite coal production being hampered at Dipka mines due to prolonged rains, Coal India Ltd will exceed last year’s production figures, a to ...
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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