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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 18 February 20
CORONAVIRUS AND ITS IMPACT ON YOUR CONTRACT - CAN YOU RELY ON 'FORCE MAJEURE'? - INCE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On 30 January 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared that the outbreak of the Novel Coronavirus (officially t ...
Monday, 17 February 20
IMO-2020 SULPHUR CAP - ISSUES TO CONSIDER PRIOR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE CARRIAGE BAN ON 1 MARCH 2020 - STANDARD CLUB
With the IMO 2020 global sulphur cap now in force, members should bear in mind another significant date in relation to the ‘carriage ban&rsqu ...
Monday, 17 February 20
COVID-19: THE EFFECT OF THIS PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCY ON CHARTERPARTY TERMS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Is it useful to compare the COVID-19 with earlier disease outbreaks?
A comparison with the Ebola outbreak ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - REUTERS
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
CHEN ZHIDA: NOVEL CORONAVIRUS - IMPLICATIONS FOR CHARTERPARTIES - SHIPOWNERS' CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Last month, the Club issued a bulletin on the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) which explained the origin of the virus a ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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