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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 19 February 20
AS OCEAN TEMPERATURES RISE, SHIPOWNERS LOOK FOR WAYS TO COPE - WARTSILA
The world is heating up, and its oceans are no exception. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the oceans absorb the majo ...
Wednesday, 19 February 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The coronavirus outbreak is estimated to negatively affect global economy by at least EUR400bn this year, representing around the 0.4% of global GD ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
WEEKLY MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
Under such poorly performing market circumstances, many usually take the historical approach, in order to better understand and further analyze the ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO SHIPPED 27 PERCENT OF ITS TOTAL COAL PRODUCTION IN 2019 TO INDIA AND CHINA
PT Adaro Energy Tbk (AE) produced 58.03 Mt of coal from PT Adaro Indonesia (AI), Balangan Coal Companies and Adaro Me ...
Tuesday, 18 February 20
ADARO REMAINS POSITIVE ON THE LONG-TERM FUNDAMENTALS OF COAL MARKET SUPPORTED BY THE SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA REGION
The global seaborne thermal coal market in 2019 was faced with macro and industry challenges which pushed international coa ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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