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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 23 February 20
SHIPPING INDUSTRY FACES $370 MILLION HIT FROM NEW PANAMA CANAL CHARGE - REUTERS
A new “freshwater” charge that came in this month to help the Panama Canal cope with climate change will cost the shipping industry up ...
Sunday, 23 February 20
A 57,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SOUTH KALIMANTAN TRIP, REDELIVERY CJK, AT $7,600 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market found little to cheer about this week as it again endured remarkable lows. The Atlantic continued to improve, with ...
Saturday, 22 February 20
THE SURPRISING MOVE IN MARINE FUEL SPREADS - ING
Middle distillates tank
One of the biggest surprises since the implementation of new International Maritime Organization (IMO) sulphur regulati ...
Friday, 21 February 20
CAPE: AVERAGE NOMINAL DAILY EARNINGS STILL ADMITTEDLY UNCHANGED W-O-W AT BELOW US$3000 - FEARNLEYS
CAPE
The worst may just about be over for the big ships. Average nominal daily earnings still admittedly unchanged w-o-w at below US$3k, but sent ...
Friday, 21 February 20
INDIA: POTENTIAL INVESTORS SEEK MORE CLARITY ON COMMERCIAL COAL MINING NORMS - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Potential private investors have sought more clarity on the pricing mechanism proposed for the much-anticipated auction for commercial coal mining. ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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