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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 15 February 20
AFRAMAX: A MORE POSITIVE ATTITUDE EXISTED IN THIS SECTOR WITH RATES IMPROVING ON ALL ROUTES - BALTIC BRIEFING
VLCC
The market in the Middle East was unmoved this week, with Chinese refiners continuing to slow imports, allied with the impact of the Coron ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
A 56,000DWT VESSEL WAS CONCLUDED BASIS DELIVERY SINGAPORE VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA IN THE LOW $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
Riding the downward momentum of the previous week, the market was always going to be hard pressed to make any sort of revival. With mu ...
Saturday, 15 February 20
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION WILL TOTAL 595 MMST IN 2020, DOWN 14% FROM 2019 - EIA
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019.
Lower ...
Friday, 14 February 20
WHY THE WORLD ECONOMY WILL BE FACING CHINA'S CORONAVIRUS FOR A LONG TIME - CNBC
Everywhere we look we see the headlines and commentators talking about the coronavirus and its impact on tourism, trade and investment between Chin ...
Friday, 14 February 20
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.275 MILLION TONS OF MIN. 5,600 NCV COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co. Ltd (KOWEPO). as a representative of five Korean Gencos has issued an international tender for total 1,275,00 ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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