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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 26 January 20
SHIPPING NEEDS TO PREPARE FOR CORONAVIRUS RESTRICTIONS WARNS HILL DICKINSON
The shipping industry needs to be prepared for potential restrictions in order to prevent the further spread of the ‘Wuhan’ coronavirus ...
Friday, 24 January 20
LOW-SULPHUR FUEL OIL PRICES DROP USD 99 PER MT IN SINGAPORE - BIMCO
Singapore has seen one of the largest drops in the price of Very Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (VLSFO), which peaked on 7 January 2020 at USD 740 per metric ...
Friday, 24 January 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE REMAINED FLAT DURING THE PAST WEEK - XINHUA
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of coal prices in north China’s major ports, stood at 553 yuan (about 80.1 U.S. dollars) ...
Thursday, 23 January 20
PANAMAX: ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK IN BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND THE PACIFIC BASIN - FEARNLEYS
Cape Size
From bad to worse for the biggest ships as prices for low-sulphur fuel oil remain high whilst freight rates deteriorate further. Aver ...
Thursday, 23 January 20
AFRICAN POWER PLATFORM PUBLISHES REPORTS ON POWER SECTOR FRAMEWORK FOR SELECTED AFRICAN COUNTRIES
Press Release: African Power Platform publishes Reports on Power Sector Framework for selected African Countries
With the repo ...
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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