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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. Th ...
Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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