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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 14 May 20
OPEC REVISES DOWN GLOBAL OIL DEMAND FORECAST AGAIN
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices recorded a second sharp monthly drop in April, amid an increasing oil surplus in the spot market. Th ...
Thursday, 14 May 20
NEW COVID-19 GUIDELINES FOCUS ON SAFE INTERFACE BETWEEN SHIP AND SHORE STAFF - GARD
At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic is affecting the global population, it is important that ships’ crew and port workers protect each other ...
Wednesday, 13 May 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.4 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 124.93 points Monday, down 0.4 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chin ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
IN THE FIRST 4 MONTHS OF 2020, SOUTH KOREA IMPORTED 46.6 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL BY SEA, A NET DECLINE OF 14.1% YOY - BC
South Korea is certainly one of the countries which has handled better the current Covid-19 crisis. In the first week of May 2020, new cases of ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
OIL MARKET TURBULENCE PIVOTS FOCUS ON FLOATING STORAGE TECHNICAL NEEDS - LLOYD'S REGISTER
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Negative oil prices and off-the-scale volatility in crude markets are positive for floating storage, as the next chapter ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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