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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 09 May 20
ANGLO AMERICAN CONSIDERS SPINNING OFF SOUTH AFRICAN COAL OPERATIONS - REUTERS
Diversified miner Anglo American said on Thursday it prefers unbundling and listing its thermal coal operations in South Africa on the Johannesburg ...
Friday, 08 May 20
THE COLLAPSE OF THE OIL AND BUNKER FUEL MARKETS IN EARLY 2020 - PETER SAND
The sulphur regulation from the International Maritime Organization (IMO) that came into force on 1 January 2020 took the centre stage in the shipp ...
Friday, 08 May 20
LNG DEMAND FACED SEVERAL HEADWINDS IN THE FIRST QUARTER OF 2020 - GASLOG
LNG demand faced several headwinds in the first quarter of 2020 including a warmer than average winter in the northern hemisphere, high inventory l ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IEEFA UPDATE: THE OUTLOOK FOR THERMAL COAL IN SOUTHEAST ASIA AND SOUTH ASIA
Seven headwinds are building to sustained growth in coal in Asia
The medium term outlook for thermal coal in Southeast Asia is posit ...
Thursday, 07 May 20
IMO 2020: BUNKER CLAIMS HANDLING GUIDE FOR A NEW DECADE - THE STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
IMO 2020 is the term generally used to describe the following regulations under Annex VI of the International Convention ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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