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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 06 May 20
KOSPO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 160,000 Metric Tons (MT) Low Calorific Value Coal for J ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
COST CHALLENGES IN A US$20/BBL WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
A new approach is needed to ensure supply sector resilience
How will US$20/bbl affect the oil and gas supply chain?
It’s going to g ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It comes as no surprise that activity in the dry bulk SnP market remains soft, with asset values caught in the downward spiral generated by the Cov ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
FLOATING STORAGE OF OIL CARGOES - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to a combination of circumstances there is now a worldwide shortage of storage space ashore for both unrefi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
IRON ORE TRADE REMAINS REMARKABLY RESILIENT THIS YEAR, AT LEAST IN ASIA - BANCHERO COSTA
Iron ore trade remains remarkably resilient this year, at least in Asia, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19. In the first 4 months of ...
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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