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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 06 May 20
KOSPO INVITED COAL BIDS FOR LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 160,000 Metric Tons (MT) Low Calorific Value Coal for J ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
COST CHALLENGES IN A US$20/BBL WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
A new approach is needed to ensure supply sector resilience
How will US$20/bbl affect the oil and gas supply chain?
It’s going to g ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
It comes as no surprise that activity in the dry bulk SnP market remains soft, with asset values caught in the downward spiral generated by the Cov ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
FLOATING STORAGE OF OIL CARGOES - STANDARD CLUB
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Due to a combination of circumstances there is now a worldwide shortage of storage space ashore for both unrefi ...
Wednesday, 06 May 20
IRON ORE TRADE REMAINS REMARKABLY RESILIENT THIS YEAR, AT LEAST IN ASIA - BANCHERO COSTA
Iron ore trade remains remarkably resilient this year, at least in Asia, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19. In the first 4 months of ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Coal Association
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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