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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY 8% IN Q1 2020 RELATIVE TO Q1 2019 - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by 8% in Q1 2020 relative to Q1 2019. This significant drop was driven by lower demand in the electricity sect ...
Friday, 01 May 20
LUKOIL SHARES LUBRICANT EXPERIENCE AFTER FIRST 100 DAYS OF OPERATION ON VLSFO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
After 100 days of VLSFO operation, LUKOIL Marine Lubricants is sharing recent experience on VLSFO operation with NAVIGO M ...
Wednesday, 29 April 20
OIL CLOSES IN ON PEAK OVERSUPPLY - WOOD MACKENZIE
Are we now deep in the abyss? Up to our necks in it, if the oil price is any guide. Brent has now tested sub-US$20/bbl in this downturn and WTI sub ...
Monday, 27 April 20
INCIDENT INVESTIGATION: SEARCH FOR THE CAUSE, NOT THE VILLAIN - GARD
Incident investigations often conclude with placing the blame for an incident on the crew. Causes of the incidents are usually identified as proced ...
Monday, 27 April 20
A 58,000DWT VESSEL WAS FIXED DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP VIA INDONESIA, RE-DELIVERY WC INDIA, AT $4,500 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The tide turned this week for the Capesize market, as voyage rates registered dramatically falling fuel costs. This was led primarily ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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