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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 24 April 20
COAL INDIA TO PRODUCE 710 MT COAL - MINISTER OF COAL AND MINES
Coal India Limited (CIL) will produce 710 million tonnes (MT) of coal and company’s coal off take target will also remain at710 MT for this f ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA COAL PRODUCER YANZHOU COAL POSTS 9.6 PCT RISE IN 2019 NET PROFIT - XINHUA
China’s major coal producer Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., Ltd. said Thursday that its net profit saw a 9.6 percent rise in 2019.
Th ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
INDONESIA ACCOUNTS FOR 19% OF JAPAN'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
Coal trade in Asia is proving remarkably resilient this year, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19.
We have seen China&r ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
COVID-19: CHARTERPARTY MATTERS FOR SHIPOWNERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst the plight of cruise ships, stranded off shore with sick passengers and crew, may be dominating media headlines, t ...
Monday, 20 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING AN INDONESIA COAL RUN TO CHINA AT $4400 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week was the strongest period seen for the Capesize market in several months. All routes globally succumbed to improved sentiment ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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