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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, rec ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SAUDI ARABIA'S MAY 2020 OSPS FOR CRUDE EXPORTS BODE WELL FOR ASIAN REFINERS - WOOD MACKENZIE
On 13 April, Saudi Arabia announced the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its May crude oil exports. The new OSPs speak volumes about Saudi Arabia ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SEABORNE COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS DEMAND SOFTENS IN CHINA, INDIA - CLYDE RUSSELL
Worrying signs are emerging for coal exporters to the world’s biggest markets in Asia, as top buyers China and India move to favour domestic ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
THERMAL POWER SECTOR FACES BLEAK SCENARIO POST-COVID SITUATION - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
Covid-19 may have serv ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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