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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, rec ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SAUDI ARABIA'S MAY 2020 OSPS FOR CRUDE EXPORTS BODE WELL FOR ASIAN REFINERS - WOOD MACKENZIE
On 13 April, Saudi Arabia announced the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its May crude oil exports. The new OSPs speak volumes about Saudi Arabia ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SEABORNE COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS DEMAND SOFTENS IN CHINA, INDIA - CLYDE RUSSELL
Worrying signs are emerging for coal exporters to the world’s biggest markets in Asia, as top buyers China and India move to favour domestic ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
THERMAL POWER SECTOR FACES BLEAK SCENARIO POST-COVID SITUATION - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
Covid-19 may have serv ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
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