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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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