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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 05 May 20
SUPRAMAXES: YTD SLIDE HAS BEEN 45%, WITH THE AVERAGE FOR 2020 TCA HOLDING AT US$5,793 - ALLIED
It has been almost three months since the WHO officially categorized the current coronavirus outbreak as a global pandemic, an outbreak that has br ...
Monday, 04 May 20
U.S. ESTIMATED COAL PRODUCTION FALL 39.4% YEAR ON YEAR IN THE WEEK ENDED APRIL 25 - EIA
Estimated U.S. coal production totaled about 8.6 million short tons (MMst) For the week ended April 25, 2020, says EIA in its latest report.
E ...
Saturday, 02 May 20
SUPRAMAX: ASIA, STRONGER NUMBERS - A 55.000-DWT WAS FIXED FROM INDONESIA TO CHINA IN THE MID $6,000S - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A tepid week for the big ships, as macro concerns continued to weigh heavily on the index. All of the major voyage routes lost value, ...
Friday, 01 May 20
KOSPO INVITED OFFER FOR 5600 NCV COAL FOR Q3 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for 260,000 Metric Tons (MT) steam coal for Boryeong Power ...
Friday, 01 May 20
GLOBAL COAL DEMAND TO FALL BY ABOUT 8% IN 2020,THE LARGEST DROP SINCE WORLD WAR II - IEA
We expect global coal demand to fall by about 8% in 2020, the largest drop since World War II, with coal use declining in virtually every sector of ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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