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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
CAN INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY SURVIVE COVID-19? : IEEFA
Pandemic Lockdown and Slumping Prices Put Extreme Pressure on Coal Miners
Executive Summary
While attention has been focused on th ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO CLOCK RECORD 700 MILLION TONNES IN FY21: COAL SECRETARY - PTI
Coal Secretary Anil Jain said FY20 coal production was lower than the target of 660 million tonnes because of flooding of a key coal mine.
&nbs ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The University of Queensland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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