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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Tuesday, 12 May 20
A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RESTART HAS SLOWLY BEGUN AS COUNTRIES AROUND THE WORLD GRADUALLY - ALLIED
A global economic restart has slowly begun as countries around the world gradually set their return back to “normality”. Yet by all mea ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
CAN INDONESIA'S COAL INDUSTRY SURVIVE COVID-19? : IEEFA
Pandemic Lockdown and Slumping Prices Put Extreme Pressure on Coal Miners
Executive Summary
While attention has been focused on th ...
Tuesday, 12 May 20
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION TO CLOCK RECORD 700 MILLION TONNES IN FY21: COAL SECRETARY - PTI
Coal Secretary Anil Jain said FY20 coal production was lower than the target of 660 million tonnes because of flooding of a key coal mine.
&nbs ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Monday, 11 May 20
CORONAVIRUS PUTS MORE THAN A THIRD OF SEABORNE COAL SUPPLY AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
The full impact of the coronavirus outbreak on the global economy is yet unclear. However, the demand destruction is already becoming evident, with ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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