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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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