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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 18 May 20
TAKING ADVANTAGE OF VIRUS DISTRACTION - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As the industry grapples to deal with exceptional Covid-19-related challenges, a deeper threat is coming to the fore. At this time of crisis, more ...
Monday, 18 May 20
THERMAL COAL SPOT PRICE TUMBLES 25 PER CENT, PUTTING PRESSURE ON SOME PRODUCERS - ABC RURAL
The spot price for thermal coal has fallen 25 per cent per cent in the past month with one leading analyst saying it is because of a reduction in d ...
Monday, 18 May 20
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 1.3 PCT IN JANUARY-APRIL: XINHUA
Output of raw coal in China rose 1.3 percent year on year to 1.15 billion tonnes in the first four months this year, official data showed.
&nbs ...
Sunday, 17 May 20
A 55,000 OPEN ILIGAN FIXING AT $6,500 VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY INDIA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
A precipitous fall in the market this week had the Capesize 5TC shedding over 50 per cent in value. A small rebound at the end of the ...
Friday, 15 May 20
CHINA'S COAL CONSUMPTION TO FALL Y/Y IN SECOND QUARTER, IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED IN SECOND HALF - INDUSTRY BODY: REUTERS
China’s coal consumption is expected to decline in the second quarter from a year earlier, but will see an improvement in the second half of ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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