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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Thursday, 21 May 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR TOTAL 610000 MT OF LCV AND HCV COAL FOR 2H 2020
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd. (KOMIPO) has Issued an International Tender for 130,000 mt of 5700 NCV coal an ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
ADARO ENERGY BOOKED A 5% INCREASE IN COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME Y-O-Y IN 1Q2020
PT. Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia’s one of the largest coal miner, booked a 5% increase in coal production volume year-over-year in 1Q2020. The ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
BRAZIL SOYBEAN EXPORTS HAVE BEEN SURGING THIS YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Brazil soybean exports have been surging this year, thanks to a combination of strong demand from China, a bumper crop, and favourable exchange rat ...
Wednesday, 20 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT
Seafarers keep maritime trade going so that the food, raw materials, energy and manufactured goods on which so many depend can continue moving arou ...
Tuesday, 19 May 20
AMENDMENT OF THE INDONESIAN MINING LAW: TYING UP LOOSE ENDS - UMBRA
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The finalized draft of Law on the amendment of the Mining Law (Bill) was publicly released on 11 May 2020 and was then ap ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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