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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 29 May 20
KOMIPO ON BEHALF FIVE KOREAN GENCOS INVITED COAL BIDS FOR 5,700 & 4999 NCV COAL FOR AUGUST 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: South Korea’s Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO) on behalf five (5) Korean Gencos has Issued an International Tender for tota ...
Friday, 29 May 20
DRY BULK SHIPPING: NO QUICK RECOVERY FOR THE DRY BULK MARKET AS COVID-19 DIGS DEEPER
The outlook is poor for dry bulk, as the negative demand shock and overcapacity come together to send rates to multi-year lows, even a return to wo ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
COVID-19: A FORCE MAJEURE EVENT? - KYPRIANOU
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
While seeing the unexpected COVID-19 outbreak expanding worldwide and the first cases being identified in Cyprus, the com ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
OIL DEMAND RECOVERED BY 20% IN MAY AGAINST APRIL: RUSSIAN ENERGY MINISTER - TASS
Oil demand remains at a low level but the demand in May increased by 20% against April, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said, cited by the ...
Thursday, 28 May 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Earlier in May, China’s top leaders convened for the annual National People's Congress, following over two months of delays due to the co ...
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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