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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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