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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 24 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Since the start of the pandemic, the shipping industry has efficiently responded to ensure the continuity of operations and hence the security of s ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
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