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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
'OMNIBUS LAW' REGULATION ON INDONESIA’S ENERGY AND MINING SECTORS TO BOOST COAL PROCESSING BUT ALSO RAISES QUESTIONS - ABNR
February 2021 saw the issuance of a raft of new government regulations to give effect to the reformist Job Creation Law (colloquially known as the ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
PROPOSED SWITCH FROM COAL TO LNG THREATENS RENEWABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT IN ASIA - IEEFA
Renewables offer an ever cheaper, financially sustainable and energy secure alternative, better able to support developing nations
A ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
MAJOR INVESTMENT ADVISORS BLACKROCK AND MEKETA PROVIDE A FIDUCIARY PATH THROUGH THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
BlackRock and Meketa say divestment from fossil fuels improves, not weakens, investment returns
Two major financial management firms ...
Thursday, 25 March 21
EUROPE PASSES MILESTONE WITH HALF OF COAL PLANTS CLOSED OR SET TO RETIRE BY 2030 - EURACTIV
Half of Europe’s 324 coal-fueled power plants have either closed or announced a retirement date before 2030, it emerged on Monday (22 March) ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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