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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
After a series of months where the dry bulk sector was attracting most of the buying interest, tankers SnP activity spiked in the previous weeks. O ...
Tuesday, 13 April 21
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL UP AGAIN ON FIRM DEMAND
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for April 2021 settles at US$ 86.68 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Monday, 12 April 21
CHINA'S ECONOMIC RECOVERY PUSHES COAL MINES TO INCREASE YIELD - GLOBAL TIMES
China’s fast economic rebound from coronavirus has driven up electricity demand, leading to higher consumption of coal which is seeing rising ...
Monday, 12 April 21
GLOBAL COAL PRODUCTION EXPECTED TO RISE BY 3.5% IN 2021, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Global coal output is estimated to have declined by 2% in 2020 due to COVID-19-related lockdowns and restrictions, with significant reductions obse ...
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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