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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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