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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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