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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
Wednesday, 28 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite the current challenges as a result of the global pandemic, 2021 is turning out to be a landmark year for the iron ore market with spot pric ...
Monday, 26 April 21
CHINA TO FURTHER CUT COAL USE IN 2021 - XINHUA
China aims to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix to less than 56% this year, according to a guideline released by the National Energy Admin ...
Wednesday, 21 April 21
COAL FINANCING COSTS HAVE SURGED IN PAST 10 YEARS - UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD - THE GUARDIAN
Coal financing costs have surged over the last decade as investors demand returns four times as high as the payoff required from renewable energy p ...
Tuesday, 20 April 21
US DOLLAR LIBOR TRANSITION IN ASSET FINANCE - WHERE ARE WE NOW? - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
Since our last article, there has been a raft of regulatory and market body announcements relating to the transition away from LIBOR and the follow ...
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- The University of Queensland
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- MS Steel International - UAE
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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