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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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