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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS AND MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised some of its metals and mining price assumptions as prices for many commodities will benefit in the short term from return ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
MITSUBISHI PULLS OUT OF VINH TAN 3 COAL PROJECT IN VIETNAM - NIKKEI ASIA
Japanese trading house Mitsubishi Corp. decided Thursday to withdraw from the Vinh Tan 3 coal-fired power plant project in Vietnam amid growing int ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
ARE WE ON THE CUSP OF ANOTHER MINING SUPER-CYCLE? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As the first wave of the coronavirus pandemic began to bite, many observers confidently predicted that the end was nigh for global economic activit ...
Thursday, 25 February 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR SEABORNE COAL TRADE - BANCHERO COSTA
Total loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-year to 1,130 million tonnes, according to vessels tracking data from Refinitiv, s ...
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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