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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
We have just entered February, Chinese New Year holidays are about to start and the SnP market for bulkers is so hot as every seller would dream of ...
Tuesday, 09 February 21
SWITCHING COAL PLANTS TO PLN'S BIOMASS COFIRING PLAN IS NO MAGIC BULLET - IEEFA
Implementation risks for Indonesia PLN's switch from coal to biomass cofiring
PLN’s biomass cofiring plan will require not ...
Friday, 05 February 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR FEBRUARY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 87.79 PER TON FOB VESSEL
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for February 2021 settles at US$ 87.79 per ton FOB vessel. The February reference price is the hig ...
Thursday, 04 February 21
WHY BANGLADESH SHOULDN’T COUNT ON A FOSSIL FUEL FUTURE - IEEFA
Around US$50 billion of LNG projects in Asia at risk of cancellation
Two astonishing figures have circulated in the Asian energy sector in the ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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