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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
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- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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