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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 23 January 21
GOVT PLANNING TO OPEN UP COAL MARKETING TO STREAMLINE PROCESS - THE INDIAN EXPRESS
The government is considering opening up coal marketing, Coal Secretary Anil Kumar Jain said on Thursday. Currently, production by Coal India is al ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
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- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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