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Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
 India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this means for the power, coal, gas and LNG, and oil products sectors.
Impact on power and coal demand
Principal analyst Pralabh Bhargava said: “India’s power demand has declined on average 30% year-on-year (yoy) and 25% week-on-week basis on 28 March. Demand from the industrial and commercial sectors are already falling. Load shape is moving to residential from industrial due to teleworking and home-schooling. We expect an average overall power demand decline of 35% until 14 April and a progressive recovery thereafter.
“Coal stocks at power plants and mines reached record highs of 40 million tonnes (Mt) and 60 Mt by 25 March, and many are already rejecting shipments from Coal India. This situation is due to lower thermal coal demand over the last 15 days and robust production in recent months.
“Movement of imported coal will be restricted due to constraints at ports and infrastructure. We expect the Force Majeure announced by port operators to have a limited impact on coal imports, as it is considered an ‘essential’ service.”
Impact on gas and LNG
Senior analyst Vidur Singhal said: “The transport and industrial sectors have been impacted. The average daily gas consumption across sectors stood at around 151 mmcm/d (million cubic metres per day) in 2019. We expect about 18-20% reduction in daily gas demand post lockdown. Also, demand from refineries and fertiliser plants, and anchor gas customers, have reduced in line with their utilisation rates with significant downside risk if the lockdown is extended.
“Gas aggregators are in a tight spot. LNG buyers declared Force Majeure once port operations stopped. Regas terminals were oversupplied heading into the lockdown as all major buyers procured low-priced spot volumes in advance. Even long-term LNG volumes are at risk as demand shrinks.”
Impact on oil products demand and refining
Research analyst Qiaoling Chen said: “We estimate that gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel demand will be down by 25%, 33%, and 13% yoy respectively in the second quarter while fuel oil, refinery gas demand will decline by 8%, 20% respectively at the same time.
“Overall, total demand is expected to decline by 871,000 barrels per day (b/d) (-17%) yoy in April. The negative impact is likely to last through Q2 2020 with most oil products returning to normal growth in the third quarter of this year except for jet fuel demand, which is expected to return to normal growth only in the first quarter of next year.”
On refining, research analyst Kendrick Ng said: “Refiners are reducing runs in response to lower oil products demand and weakness in refining margins. We estimate that the country will process about 800,000 b/d less crude in April, month-on-month basis, resulting in about 17% decline in the utilisation rate.
“Indian PSUs (public sector undertaking) are expected to be hurt the most amid tepid domestic demand, high storage level and lesser access to export markets, especially inland refineries.”
Source: Wood Mackenzie
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Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
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