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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Thursday, 05 March 20
INDONESIA'S BUKIT ASAM 2019 OUTPUT RISES 10.2% Y/Y - REUTERS
PT Bukit Asam, Indonesia’s state-owned coal miner, said on Wednesday its output in 2019 rose 10.2% to 29.1 million tonnes.
Coa ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEEING REMOTELY - IN SAFETY: BUREAU VERITAS PERFORMS FIRST SURVEY BY DRONE - BUREAU VERITAS
Bureau Veritas Marine & Offshore (BV), a world leader in testing, inspection and certification (TIC) services has completed its first survey by ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
AN EPIDEMIC OF UNCERTAINTY - THE CORONAVIRUS AND FORCE MAJEURE - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do the effects of the coronavirus give rise to legitimate force majeure claims in connection with shipbuilding contracts ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA IMPORTED 76.8 MLN TONNES OF CRUDE OIL FOR JANUARY & FEBRUARY 2020; UP 3.4% YOY - REFINITIV | BC
The COVID-19 crisis has been gripping China already for almost two months now. It’s having a huge negative impact on the economy, and this is ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As it was expected, the whole world has been focusing on the spread of the Coronavirus, with the fast outbreak being primarily a massive humanitari ...
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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