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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The University of Queensland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
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