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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Monday, 09 March 20
OPEC+ 'NO DEAL' A BLOW TO THE MARKET - WOOD MACKENZIE
Speaking after today’s OPEC+ meeting broke up, Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at Wood Mackenzie, said: “Today’s o ...
Monday, 09 March 20
KOREA EAST-WEST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 150,000 MT OF MIN 4,400 - MAX 5,499 NAR COAL
COALspot.com: KOREA EAST-WEST POWER CO. LTD. of South Korea has issued an international tender for total 150,000 MT of LCV coal for May – Jun ...
Sunday, 08 March 20
SUPRAMAX: A 55,000DWT VESSEL FIXING DELIVERY FROM EAST KALIMANTAN FOR A TRIP TO VIETNAM AT $9,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
SUPRAMAX/ULTRAMAX - A 56,000DWT VESSEL FIXED DELIVERY SOUTH CHINA TRIP VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY EAST COAST INDIA, IN THE $6,000S
SUPRAMAX/U ...
Friday, 06 March 20
CHINA RESUMES 83.4 PCT COAL PRODUCTION CAPACITY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China has resumed 83.4 percent of its coal production capacity amid the fight against the novel coronavirus outbreak, the National Energy Administr ...
Friday, 06 March 20
COLOMBIAN COAL OUTPUT FELL 2% IN 2019 - REUTERS
Coal production in Colombia, the fifth-largest coal exporter in the world, fell 2% to 82.2 million tonnes in 2019 after output at one of the princi ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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