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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 13 March 20
TOP 4 ACCOUNTING CONSIDERATIONS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IMO 2020 - PWC
To install or not to install?
Following the IMO 2020 global low sulphur cap for marine fuel effective since 1 January 2020, many shi ...
Friday, 13 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 13 March 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 390,000 MT OF THERMAL COAL FOR MAY-JUNE 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), has issued an international tender for total 390,000 Metric Tons of coal for May & June ...
Thursday, 12 March 20
INDIA 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS RISE 12.6% TO NEARLY 200 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
India’s thermal coal imports rose 12.6% to nearly 200 million tonnes in 2019, government data reviewed by Reuters showed, reflecting the seco ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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