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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 13 March 20
TOP 4 ACCOUNTING CONSIDERATIONS AFTER THE IMPLEMENTATION OF IMO 2020 - PWC
To install or not to install?
Following the IMO 2020 global low sulphur cap for marine fuel effective since 1 January 2020, many shi ...
Friday, 13 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 13 March 20
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 390,000 MT OF THERMAL COAL FOR MAY-JUNE 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea South-East Power Co., Ltd. (KOEN), has issued an international tender for total 390,000 Metric Tons of coal for May & June ...
Thursday, 12 March 20
INDIA 2019 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS RISE 12.6% TO NEARLY 200 MILLION TONNES - REUTERS
India’s thermal coal imports rose 12.6% to nearly 200 million tonnes in 2019, government data reviewed by Reuters showed, reflecting the seco ...
Wednesday, 11 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.07 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 133.16 points Monday, up 0.07 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
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