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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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