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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Wednesday, 11 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On the 4th of September the Baltic Dry Index marked its highest level for 2019, reaching 2,518 points, while the rest of the dry indices also recor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
SHIPPING MARKET ANALYSIS
It might be already overstated, but it seems to be important to point out once again how peculiar the current circumstances are.
Before the st ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
EIA FORECASTS U.S ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR DEMAND FOR COAL WILL FALL BY 81 MMST (15%) IN 2020
EIA forecasts that U.S. coal production will total 595 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, down 95 MMst (14%) from 2019. According to EIA's Shor ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: DEMAND DOWNGRADES FOR BULK COMMODITIES - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus outbreak is a rapidly evolving news story – and a real wildcard for bulks demand. Our global experts are monitoring the impac ...
Tuesday, 10 March 20
CHINA'S COAL-RICH PROVINCE ENSURES ENERGY SUPPLY AMID EPIDEMIC - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has seen more than 500 coal mines resume production in February, which ensured energy supply amid the ou ...
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
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