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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 06 March 20
SOLID BACKING FOR LNG AS A MARINE FUEL - BALTIC EXCHANGE
When it comes to choosing the best fuel on the near horizon to help the international shipping industry shrink its carbon intensity by 2050, DNV GL ...
Friday, 06 March 20
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AGAIN THIS MONTH
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised up the benchmark price of Indonesian thermal co ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
PANAMAX: SHIP-OWNERS HAVE MOSTLY BEEN GETTING HIGHER RATES THAN THE LAST DONE - FEARNLEYS
Cape
There is still limited amount of positive news around, with the effects of Corona virus hurting world economy. However, overall average in ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
COAL IMPORTS DOWN IN MAJOR ASIAN MARKETS, AND CORONAVIRUS NOT THE DRIVING FORCE - CLYDE RUSSELL
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
Thursday, 05 March 20
SEABORNE COAL'S STRUGGLES IN ASIA ARE MORE THAN JUST CHINA CORONAVIRUS - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal markets stumbled in February and it appears the coronavirus outbreak in China may dodge most of the blame, with the weak ...
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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