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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Wednesday, 04 March 20
CORONAVIRUS: A WILDCARD FOR BULKS DEMAND - WOOD MACKENZIE
The coronavirus is casting a shadow across commodity markets. It has undermined China’s economic sentiment, putting the country’s growt ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
THERMAL COAL TO 'PHASE OUT', STRONG DEMAND FOR COKING COAL: PLATO - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Plato Investments managing director Don Hamson says Australian iron ore producers are set to benefit in the fallout from coronavirus as China will ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
CHINA PROVINCE TO CLOSE 10 MLN TONNES OF COAL CAPACITY IN 2020 - XINHUA
Southwest China’s Guizhou Province plans to phase out 10 million tonnes of outdated coal production capacity by closing 80 coal mines in 2020 ...
Wednesday, 04 March 20
UKRAINE PRODUCED OVER 2.55 MLN TONNES OF COAL IN FEBRUARY - UKRINFORM
In February 2020, Ukraine produced over 2.55 million tonnes of coal, which is 0.2% less than planned.
The Coal Miners Union of Ukrai ...
Tuesday, 03 March 20
IMPORTANCE OF MASTER'S CARGO CHECKS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Adecision in recent High Court case has made it clear that there is no implied indemnity from a charterer to their counte ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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