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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
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