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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 17 March 20
IT IS NOW UNQUESTIONABLE THAT 2020 WILL BE A MILESTONE YEAR FOR THE OIL MARKET, AS WELL AS THE WHOLE GLOBAL ECONOMY - ALLIED
It is now unquestionable that 2020 will be a milestone year for the oil market, as well as the whole global economy. The impact from the COVID-19 o ...
Tuesday, 17 March 20
PRELIMINARY FIELD EXPERIENCES ON THE EFFECTS OF LSFO AND VLSFO ON CYLINDER CONDITION - HANS JENSEN LUBRICATORS
It is now more than two months since the 0.5% sulphur cap entered into force, which have affected the operation of more than 70,000 vessels. As ant ...
Monday, 16 March 20
ULTRAMAX: S8 INDONESIA-INDIA AND S10 INDONESIA-CHINA ROUTES BOTH POSTED GAINS OF $1,412, AND $1,289 ON THE WEEK, TO CLOSE AT $5,575, AND $6,089 RESPECTIVELY - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market came to work on Monday, with little expectation, or confidence, that the days ahead were going to bring anything o ...
Sunday, 15 March 20
CAPTIVE COAL OUTPUT RISES 19% IN APRIL-FEBRUARY - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Coal production from captive mines in the first eleven months of the ongoing fiscal have increased by 18.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) to 51.7 million to ...
Friday, 13 March 20
PANAMAX: SLIGHTLY STRONGER NUMBERS IN BOTH BASINS THIS WEEK - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Still very sad times for the big ships, and merit in further trading at present levels is highly debatable for most tonnage. Spot fixtures ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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