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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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