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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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