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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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