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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Saturday, 21 March 20
PANAMAX: 82,000DWT SHIP AGREED $4,250 FOR A COAL TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY SOUTH CHINA - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market made some headway this past week despite being buffeted by the global pandemic storm. With the market in a constan ...
Friday, 20 March 20
VOLATILITY TO INCREASE IN TANKER MARKET FOLLOWING OIL PRICE WAR - DREWRY
Crude oil prices plunged by more than a third in the past week after OPEC+ failed to agree on production cut as demand softened in the aftermath of ...
Friday, 20 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Friday, 20 March 20
OIL PRICES COULD FALL BELOW ZERO: ANALYST - FOX BUSINESS
Plunging oil prices could be headed a lot lower – possibly below zero, according to one Wall Street analyst.
West Texas Interm ...
Friday, 20 March 20
84% OF FEBRUARY BUNKER SALES IN SINGAPORE ARE LOW-SULPHUR FUELS - BIMCO
Low-sulphur fuels accounted for 84% of total February sales in Singapore, slightly up from 83% in January. The sale of low-sulphur fuel oil (LSFO) ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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