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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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