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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Wednesday, 25 March 20
CORONAVIRUS CRISIS IS CRUSHING GLOBAL GDP GROWTH - FITCH RATINGS
The coronavirus crisis is crushing global GDP growth according to Fitch Ratings in its latest quarterly “Global Economic Outlook” (GEO) ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is no doubt that the Covid-19 pandemic crisis is a world-shattering event that will change the world as we know it. Societies are facing chal ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
INDONESIA TO CANCEL RULES REQUIRING DOMESTIC SHIPS FOR COAL, PALM EXPORTS : REFINITIV
Indonesia's government will revoke rules requiring exporters of coal and palm oil to use domestic shipping companies for shipments, Coordinatin ...
Wednesday, 25 March 20
JAN-FEB 2020, INDONESIA SHIPPED 64.5 MLN TONNES OF COAL, UP +3.4% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of calendar 2019, Indonesia exported 386.4 mln tonnes of coal, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv. This represents a ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
MARKET ANALYSIS - ALLIED
As countries around the world struggle to take back control of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic the global economy shuts down bit by bit, leaving only ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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