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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.28 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.74 points Monday, down 0.28 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 23 March 20
CHARTERPARTY REQUIREMENTS TO NOTIFY CLAIMS - TAKE CARE! - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Voyage charterparties frequently require the owner to notify any claim with supporting documents within a relatively shor ...
Monday, 23 March 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED'S ONE-DAY OUTPUT PEAKS AT 3.17 MT - THE HINDU
Coal India Limited (CIL) output peaked at a new high of 3.17 million tonnes (MT) on March 20, overtaking the 3.14 MT production recorded on March 2 ...
Monday, 23 March 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.45 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JUNE & JULY 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO), on behalf of five Korean Gencos, has issued an international tender for total 1,450,000 MT (&pl ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PTC India Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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