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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 24 March 20
THE TRIPLE SHOCK OF CORONAVIRUS IN SHIPPING: WILL IT LAST? - DREWRY
Transport capacity shortages, disruptions to supply chains and inability to plan since late January have been a dangerous combination. But will all ...
Tuesday, 24 March 20
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.28 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 132.74 points Monday, down 0.28 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
Monday, 23 March 20
CHARTERPARTY REQUIREMENTS TO NOTIFY CLAIMS - TAKE CARE! - WFW
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Voyage charterparties frequently require the owner to notify any claim with supporting documents within a relatively shor ...
Monday, 23 March 20
COAL INDIA LIMITED'S ONE-DAY OUTPUT PEAKS AT 3.17 MT - THE HINDU
Coal India Limited (CIL) output peaked at a new high of 3.17 million tonnes (MT) on March 20, overtaking the 3.14 MT production recorded on March 2 ...
Monday, 23 March 20
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.45 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR JUNE & JULY 2020 LOADING
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co.,Ltd (KOMIPO), on behalf of five Korean Gencos, has issued an international tender for total 1,450,000 MT (&pl ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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