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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Saturday, 28 March 20
ASIA'S COAL MARKETS DIVERGE ON QUALITY LINES AS CORONAVIRUS HITS INDIA - REUTERS
Asia’s seaborne coal market is increasingly diverging between higher-quality Australian coal, where prices are holding up despite the economi ...
Friday, 27 March 20
CHINA'S BULKS: THE SENTIMENT GAP BETWEEN STEEL AND COAL WIDENS - WOOD MACKENZIE
China seems to be containing its local coronavirus situation, with imported cases now posing the greater threat. While quarantine measures remain t ...
Friday, 27 March 20
S.KOREA Q1 THERMAL COAL IMPORTS SET FOR 10-YR LOW ON ANTI-POLLUTION MEASURES - REUTERS
South Korea’s first-quarter thermal coal imports are set to fall to a decade-low due to stricter air pollution measures, while the coronaviru ...
Friday, 27 March 20
PORT OF NEWCASTLE OPERATIONS CONTINUE WITH COVID-19 RESPONSE MEASURES IN PLACE
Port of Newcastle, like many organisations, is taking a precautionary approach to help manage COVID-19 risks in the community. Our focus is on ensu ...
Thursday, 26 March 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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