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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 03 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE DROPS SLIGHTLY - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
TRADERS SCRAMBLE TO SELL CHEAP CRUDE CARGOES AS GLUT GROWS - REUTERS
Oil traders across the globe are offering cargoes far in advance as rapidly vanishing demand drives key physical crude prices to multi-decade lows, ...
Wednesday, 01 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
There is an old, allegedly Chinese, saying suggesting that living in “interesting” times usually refers to times of trouble. The latest ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
FREIGHT MARKET: DRY BULKERS - SPOT MARKET 23-29 MARCH 2020
Capesize
The rebound in freight rates resumed this past week, with rates man-aging to post further gains by week’s end. The BCI is in negat ...
Tuesday, 31 March 20
DRY BULK: Q1 HAS BEEN THE WORST QUARTER NOTED FOR MORE THAN 3 YEARS NOW - ALLIED RESEARCH
At this point, the Covid-19 pandemic seems to be monopolizing all market (as well as all other) discussions across the world and any market insight ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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