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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Tuesday, 07 April 20
IS CHINA EMBARKING ON A MAJOR EXPANSION OF COAL-FIRED POWER GENERATION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
As energy companies worldwide grapple with the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic, long-term planning continues. Ahead of the release of t ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
COAL INDIA'S DISPATCHES DROP, OUTPUT INCREASES - THE HINDU
India’s largest coal producer Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has seen a 10% fall in dispatches in March 2020 due to a sharp fall in demand from the po ...
Tuesday, 07 April 20
CORONAVIRUS AND LOCKDOWNS DRAG DOWN THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE IN APRIL
COALspot.com: The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources of the Republic of Indonesia has revised down the benchmark price of the Indonesian ther ...
Monday, 06 April 20
A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING DELIVERY SINGAPORE TRIP, VIA INDONESIA, REDELIVERY TAIWAN, AT $3,100 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Monday, 06 April 20
INDIA'S 21-DAY LOCKDOWN - IMPACT ON COMMODITIES? - WOOD MACKENZIE
India is under a three-week lockdown from 25 March, to contain the spread of the coronavirus outbreak. Wood Mackenzie analysts discuss what this me ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Coal Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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