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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Thursday, 16 April 20
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE FALLS 5 YUAN PER TONNE - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price fell by 5 yuan (about 70 U.S. cents) per tonne during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Co ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As everyone anticipated the results of the OPEC + G20 meeting last week, it was very interesting to watch the reaction of tanker rates that were in ...
Monday, 13 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 56,000DWT SHIP WAS FIXED DELIVERY PARADIP, REDELIVERY CHINA, AT $4,700 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize market this past week looks to have come off life support and found some improved sentiment. The week began rather ordina ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
FAQ: COVID-19 AND CLUB COVER - UK P&I
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic has generated a significant number of enquiries and questions from Members in recent ...
Saturday, 11 April 20
KOEN POWER PLANTS INVITED BIDS FOR 1.5 -1.62 MMT OF STEAM COAL
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 1,500,000-1,620,000 Metric Tons (M ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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