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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 17 April 20
PANDEMIC TO BRING ASIA'S 2020 GROWTH TO HALT FOR 1ST TIME IN 60 YEARS - IMF: REUTERS
Asia’s economic growth this year will grind to a halt for the first time in 60 years, as the coronavirus crisis takes an “unprecedented ...
Friday, 17 April 20
OPEC BRACES FOR OIL MARKET'S "HISTORIC SHOCK"
OPEC released its much anticipated April monthly report.
Crude Oil Price Movements
Crude oil prices collapsed in March 2020, rec ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SAUDI ARABIA'S MAY 2020 OSPS FOR CRUDE EXPORTS BODE WELL FOR ASIAN REFINERS - WOOD MACKENZIE
On 13 April, Saudi Arabia announced the Official Selling Prices (OSPs) for its May crude oil exports. The new OSPs speak volumes about Saudi Arabia ...
Friday, 17 April 20
SEABORNE COAL PRICES UNDER PRESSURE AS DEMAND SOFTENS IN CHINA, INDIA - CLYDE RUSSELL
Worrying signs are emerging for coal exporters to the world’s biggest markets in Asia, as top buyers China and India move to favour domestic ...
Thursday, 16 April 20
THERMAL POWER SECTOR FACES BLEAK SCENARIO POST-COVID SITUATION - THE HINDU BUSINESS LINE
The centre should take a fresh look at coal-energy value chain as the sector tops the chart on loan defaults.
Covid-19 may have serv ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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