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Thursday, 19 March 20
A CRUDE TSUNAMI: UP TO 3 MILLION BPD OF EXTRA OIL CAN HIT THE MARKET FROM APRIL, MORE COMING IN MAY - RYSTAD ENERGY
 The extra oil coming into the global market from April will be as much as 3 million barrels per day (bpd), Rystad Energy estimates. Two million bpd is what OPEC+ countries are realistically able to add next month based on their storage, spare capacity and ramp up capabilities. Another million bpd could come if a cease-fire is agreed upon in Libya and the country reaches pre-shut-in levels.
The additional product comes at a time when there is an existing global supply surplus. Before the OPEC+ meeting earlier this month, Rystad Energy had calculated that cuts of about 2 million bpd were needed to balance the market.
Since then, the world’s global demand has also seen a steep decline as flight cancellations, industrial shutdowns, quarantines and travel bans have further reduced the need for oil consumption by many more millions of bpd, widening the imbalance that already existed before the OPEC+ meeting.
The oil price is soon expected to slide even lower once the extra supply becomes available from April. But that’s not the end of it, as OPEC+ could add another 800,000 barrels of oil from May, ramping up production from its spare capacity even further.
Separately, Libya itself could make use of more of its total production capacity in a cease-fire scenario, which is as high as 2.8 million bpd. The country’s current output is less than 100,000 barrels per day due to the ongoing conflict.
“Any large political power sometimes needs to remind its adversaries and competitors of its might. We believe Saudi Arabia seeks to teach the market a lesson,” says Bjørnar Tonhaugen, Rystad Energy’s Head of Oil Markets.
There is a risk of production shut-ins as the world’s oil storage capabilities will be put to the test, with oil’s spot price subsequently collapsing, Tonhaugen adds, in which case countries with higher break-even prices will be the first to be affected.
Breaking down the additional oil production capability of the OPEC+ countries, Saudi Arabia will be the producer that plans to add the most, reaching total supply capabilities of 12.3 million bpd. We believe their upstream crude production capacity, without any additional drilling, is limited to around 11.5 million bpd in the short term.
For now, we expect the country’s April crude production to rise to between 10.8 million and 11 million bpd from 9.8 million bpd in February, and further to 11.2 million bpd in May. The remaining oil could come from its global storage facilities, in order to meet the 12.3 million bpd target.
We expect that Russia can increase production by at least 300,000 bpd in the next 90 days, according to guidance provided by Energy Minister Alexander Novak, but for now we include a more conservative increase of about 200,000 bpd in our estimates.
We expect UAE production to increase by about 200,000 bpd to 3.20 million bpd in April from February’s 3.04 million bpd, mostly from its flagship Murban onshore field. We acknowledge that the UAE could manage to increase production even higher if it utilizes its entire spare capacity.
A 110,000-bpd increase is also expected from Kuwait in April, raising its total production to 2.80 million bpd, with less upside risk than for UAE, Russia and Saudi Arabia.
The last major country with ample available spare capacity to potentially bring to the market in April is Iraq. Based on our analysis, Iraq will ramp-up production by 250,000 bpd to nearly 4.9 million bpd in April. If Iraq finds buyers for this additional crude, its total spare capacity of 480,000 bpd could be back online by June.
Source: Rystad Energy
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Friday, 24 April 20
COAL INDIA TO PRODUCE 710 MT COAL - MINISTER OF COAL AND MINES
Coal India Limited (CIL) will produce 710 million tonnes (MT) of coal and company’s coal off take target will also remain at710 MT for this f ...
Friday, 24 April 20
CHINA COAL PRODUCER YANZHOU COAL POSTS 9.6 PCT RISE IN 2019 NET PROFIT - XINHUA
China’s major coal producer Yanzhou Coal Mining Co., Ltd. said Thursday that its net profit saw a 9.6 percent rise in 2019.
Th ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
INDONESIA ACCOUNTS FOR 19% OF JAPAN'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
Coal trade in Asia is proving remarkably resilient this year, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19.
We have seen China&r ...
Tuesday, 21 April 20
COVID-19: CHARTERPARTY MATTERS FOR SHIPOWNERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Whilst the plight of cruise ships, stranded off shore with sick passengers and crew, may be dominating media headlines, t ...
Monday, 20 April 20
SUPRAMAX: A 52,000DWT SHIP FIXING AN INDONESIA COAL RUN TO CHINA AT $4400 - BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
This week was the strongest period seen for the Capesize market in several months. All routes globally succumbed to improved sentiment ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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